Editorial Review:
The author of the bestseller The Art of the Long View forecasts the inevitable surprises that will shape the business world of tomorrow. The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening. Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartz’s startling—and accurate— predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the “inevitable surprises” of tomorrow. Timely and thought-provoking, Inevitable Surprises is a book that no one with an interest in business—or the future of our society—can afford to miss.
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"Perhaps the string that is easiest to pull first...."  2006-02-18
Previously, Schwartz wrote The Art of the Long View as well as The Long Boom (which he co-authored with Peter Leyden and Joel Hyatt) and When Good Companies Do Bad Things (which he co-authored with Blair Gibb). In this volume, he addresses many of the same issues as in his previous works. However, in my opinion, he examines them in much greater depth while addressing other issues suggested by questions such as these:
1. In an increasingly more turbulent environment, how to recognize and understand "the inevitable surprises that lie ahead of us, particularly in the next twenty-five years"? For example, how to know what is needed to be known and then obtain that knowledge?
2. Given those "inevitable surprises," which steps must be taken that would allow a company or organization to thrive? For example, how to overcome "two different types of natural [but fundamentally irresponsible] reaction": denial and defensiveness?
3. What to do when new complications reveal themselves? For example, how can an "early-warning system" identify them so that appropriate and effective responses can be made in a timely manner?
Schwartz's response to only one of these questions is worth far more than the cost of his book. As he explains in Chapter 1, "Underneath the specifics, between the lines on every page in this book, you will find a basic message about the future in general: The challenges facing civilization right now are immense -- arguably more difficult than they have been during the lifetime of any living person. At the same time, because of advances in knowledge and technology, the human race has never been so capable. And since most of our challenges are caused, at least partly, by our own activity, this expanded capability is a double-edged sword." In ways and to an extent which Schwartz carefully explains, these are (in Dickens' words) the best of times and the worst of times.
The material is carefully organized within nine chapters whose titles range from "Inevitable Surprises" to "Inevitable Strategies." Of special interest to me is what Schwartz has to say in Chapter 5, "The Thoroughly New World Order." Here is a representative portion of Schwartz's rigorous narrative: "In the words of Robert Kagan, Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus. And then there is a third set of nations, increasingly chaotic and disorderly, in danger of being written off as marginal by the rest of the world. Their power, when they have it, is the power of terrorism. And if that is the only power available to them, they will use it more and more frequently." How prescient.
It is important to keep in mind when reading this book that Schwartz is not relying on a real or imagined crystal ball. He would be the first to insist that, at best, useful speculation identifies degrees of probability. This is especially true of efforts to reduce the number of what would otherwise be "inevitable surprises."
Here's a hypothetical example. (Mine, not Schwartz's.) Let's say that you learn that your next competitive environment will probably involve competition by teams. You cannot (as yet) identify the specific sport but you already know that, whatever it proves to be, members of the team must be in superb physical condition and possess certain qualities such as speed, agility, sufficient intelligence, hand-eye coordination, commitment to teamwork, etc. You should also know where to obtain, on short notice, the equipment needed. Also the correct sizes for various uniforms. Terms and conditions of appropriate behavior can be formulated. Nutrition can be controlled. You can also be alert for "signals" generated by your early-warning system. For example, at some point, you learn that the competition will be indoors. You then learn that height is irrelevant. That rules out basketball. You get the idea.
In all of three of his books that I have read, Schwartz helps his reader to (a) identify relevant probabilities, (b) ask the most important questions bount each, (c) know how and where to obtain the information needed, (d) complete contingency preparations, and (e) modify plans as new information becomes available.
Over the past 50 years, there have been so many examples of this in the business world. They include the pressurized cabin which was essential to airline travel and the rapid adoption of facsimile machines which substantially reduced the volume of overnight delivery of 1-5 page documentsas well as the Internet and WWW which enabled those online to communicate with others online (anywhere and any time), obtain information and complete commercial transactions almost instantaneously. As Schwartz explains so well, once relevant probabilities and heir implications have been identified, better decisions can be made and more effective actions can be taken.
Schwartz is generally optimistic that those who share the "thoroughly new world order" can overcome the chaos and turbulence to come if (a huge "if") they build and then maintain sensory and intelligence systems; cultivate a sense of timing; put in place mechanisms to engender what Joseph Stumper once characterized as "creative destruction"; avoid denial of the chaos and turbulence; "think like a commodity company" (see page 232); remain aware of the competence of judgment and the level of judgment that new situations require, then move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch that judgment; place a very, very high premium on learning, on environmental and ecological sustainability, and on financial infrastructure; and finally, cultivate "deep, candid" connections.
Schwartz does not assert that these values and strategies will guarantee the total elimination of all of the problems we have now nor the prevention of others in years to come. However, he has convinced me that these values and strategies can -- and will -- improve the prospects for human survival. I agree with him that "There is no recipe or playbook for doing this. There is only the ongoing knot of life to unravel. Perhaps the string that is easiest to pull first is the string in inevitable surprises."
Nowhere does Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower 2005-06-02
David Taylor got it all wrong. Being European, I actually felt a little pro-American bias about the book...but not much. Nowhere did Schwartz say that the US is a rogue superpower. What he says is that there is a "growing distaste" of the US as a "rogue superpower", and this is a fact and not a biased opinion. It is not even an opinion at all.
good ideas about the future 2005-03-31
If you think the future is predictable, read this book. The author seems rather pessimistic about the future, especially considering his earlier book, The Long Boom.
The future in parallel permutations 2004-12-24
I got this book, Inevitable Surprises, written by Peter Schwartz, because the one that I was looking for (the Art of the Long View) was not available at that time. The author's works have been recommended to me by a close friend of mine, so I made little hesitation before picking this one up.
He wrote about different aspects of the global society, and predicting trends (trends, not events. He's not psychic) for the following 30 years from 2003. Many of these trends have already happened, or happened long before, despite many obvious major events that happened shortly before the time of its publication.
Although a good portion of his "scenarios" are not so upbeat, (e.g., the rest of the world pulling the plug on Africa, and new radical groups, new diseases) they are already taking place. I personally will not deem his book pessimatic, but realistic. They are simply results of human nature, and its interactions between one another, nothing more.
Even though he had a technical background (aeronautic engineering), his discussion on technogical advances a little too optimistic. Being (or was until recently) an engineer by trade, I still think that, as promising are new technologies may be, such as quantum computing and space travel, it would take more than 30 years before such technologies become prominent.
There is still a pretty subtle indication, that Schwartz may not fare well with the Arab nations. Some of his comments, albeit still very neutral and professional, tilts slightly to the negative whenever he touches this particular subject. The reasons are likely his own, and I will not speculate any further.
This is a good book to pick up, if you are looking for the driving forces of the present and near future, and would like to know how they interact, which is the basis of scenario planning, a subject of his "claim-to-fame" book, the Art of the Long View. After reading both books, I tend to think "Long View" as the book on concepts (in scenario planning) and Inevitasble surprises as the one of its machinery. Both works should be read simultaneously.
P.S. - Regarding the "technical error" made by a certain reviewer, METHANE IS A FUEL, and it is often referred to as NATURAL GAS, which is about 94% methane by mass. I can go for miles, but it will be quite off topic.
Packed with Knowledge! 2004-08-04
Change is no news. The great changes that will alter the commercial, political and demographic workings of the world are already underway and some of their consequences are quite predictable, says author Peter Schwartz. He outlines a variety of the more important changes, particularly in places such as China and India, and limns scenarios that represent possible futures. Perhaps this sort of book is inevitable at the turning of a century, of a millennium. The author, in fact, compares his work to predecessors at the end of the nineteenth century. Although some of his predictions fall far short of shocking - for example, global warming and aging populations are hardly undiscovered issues - the exercise of thinking about scenarios and preparing strategies is a good one. The book is also entertaining, because Schwartz writes with a light hand and a casual style. We believe this book would be a good airplane read. It would certainly be appropriate for a long flight, since air travel contributes to some of the more important changes the author discusses. And, if you read it, the time will fly.
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